Wrong

As I have repeatedly argued that the Lisbon Treaty was unlikely to pass a second Irish referendum, its entry into force earlier this month inspires me to admit that I was... wrong!

Need to get better at making those predictions.

There are two reasons that I can give:

- The Irish were more comfortable than I expected with being asked to vote again after being given some of the things they wanted. It's not the first time they did this! A pragmatic rather than a stubborn people. I miscalculated because of the stubborn sentiment I perceived among my fellow Dutchmen and extrapolated from there.
- There's nothing like a financial crisis to remind people who has buttered their bread, is buttering their bread, and would be able to bail them out of future fuckups.

The amended treaties are better organised and easier to understand than what we had since Nice, and contain some useful innovations, so it's a good thing that Lisbon passed even if the process of drafting, signing and ratifying was intentionally obscure.