The resounding victories of Barack Obama and the Democratic party in the United States are great news for relations between Europe and the United States. Better relations are an unmitigated good. There may have been people who hoped for a more independent Europe as a result of poor relations with the Bush administration. But Europe was split, instead of united, by this antagonism. And it has since only returned to being ineffectual in its foreign policy.
Or: much as I would like for Europe to stop being the playground for American and Russian nuclear positioning by kicking American nukes out, stopping their useless missile defence and stopping the Russians from transporting their (ostensibly conventional) Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, this is not going to happen.
Still, there are a number of foreign policy or international issues on which the major European countries (France, Germany and the UK, to wit) are in agreement, have backing from most other countries, and might thus move together to use the opportunity window presented by the early days of the Obama presidency. He'll be happy to get a quick foreign policy success! Here's what I think we should ask for and what we could offer in return:
- An end to Operation Enduring
ForceFreedom in Afghanistan and negotiations with the Taliban.
Europe (to be precise, the UK) has been leading the way in negotiations with the Taliban, but has suffered several setbacks as the Americans keep dragging their feet and undermining the same efforts that gave them relative peace and quiet in the Iraqi province of Anbar. Maybe Senator John McCain could seat Obama, Merkel, Brown and Sarkozy together in a room and tell them to just, really, stop the bullshit. More plausibly, Brown and Miliband should get their colleagues from France and Germany to join them in sending a clear signal to Washington that negotiations with (elements of) the Taliban are going to be a condition for their continued engagement in Afghanistan.
- An American commitment to meet the obligations of the Rio convention
Now, Kyoto is a protocol under the Rio Convention (UNFCCC) that sets quantitative restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions for most of the developed countries, during the 2008-2012 period. If you're not familiar with the whole thing, process that sentence first. To continue, the US did sign and ratify the Rio Convention. Here is something that convention says:
In order to promote progress [...], each of [the developed countries] shall communicate [...] detailed information on its policies and measures [...], as well as on its resulting projected anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases [...] for the period referred to in subparagraph (a) [1992-2000], with the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases [...].Now under Kyoto, the developed countries pushed this target further towards the future by adopting stronger measures, but with a longer horizon. The United States, in the negotiations, took on an 8 percent reduction target with regard to 1990 emissions. As said, they did not ratify this. But technically, they are still obliged to reduce to 1990 emission levels. In 2004, the US were 15.8 percent above 1990 emissions. This probably increased up to 2007, but during this year I think the US has seen a notable decline due to the high oil price and the financial meltdown. With the right set of measures, they could well be down to 1990 levels in 2012.
- American participation in the post-Kyoto agreement
On the other side, we should move towards getting a harmonised quantity of per capita emissions, with a convergence point in the year 2050. This can be arranged fairly under a contraction and convergence model. This would give the United States of America a slightly higher emissions cap relative to the European Union, as compared to the Kyoto protocol, as the USA has added more people.
- Getting official labour and environmental standards in international trade
The Democrats are naturally more sympathetic to the European take on this matter, and may in fact end up pushing some European countries to accept that trade needs to come with standards not just on products but also on production. However, the UK, France and Germany currently do accept this and should recruit the Americans to form a concerted position. Because this will still require quite a push to get accepted by India and China.
As for the financial issues, I think something like a minimal tobin tax may be a good idea to stop the sector from acquiring the dangerously dominant position that caused (as a major factor) the current crisis. Allocation should move to a more subservient role. Another sensible policy would be to have a common position on general taxes on capital accumulation and tax paradises. But I don't know if this is something that the main European countries are actually on one line about. So that's just my view, rather than any immediate option.


2 comments:
Some nice dreams...
1) Afghanistan - I cannot see Obama doing this. He staked his foreign policy toughness credentials on "Afghanistan, not Iraq." He needs excuses to raid into Pakistan and look tough.
Perhaps if the Taliban could be persuaded to hand over OBL (or his remains, if he's dead) that might make room for some more possibilities.
2) You might get commitment to Rio... but I think a "post-Kyoto" is more likely. On the plus side for Rio, Obama's answer to the big recession seems like it might be a "Green New Deal" but I'm not sure, even with that, he'll want to commit to any kind of 2012 target that might restrict his wriggle room on the economy.
3) Labour and environmental standards in international trade... can't see China accepting this at the moment... and the US has to follow China's lead I think?
Yes, this is along audacity to hope lines, which might prove empty.
On Afghanistan I think that it's in Obama's interests not to still be there with the current amount of troops (let alone his ideas about an increase) in four years. So he's going to have to be creative. The fantasy part was, perhaps, where the Europeans got together to demand as much.
On standards, I don't know whether China would object in principle or would be willing to negotiate.
Post a Comment