New Poll on the Irish Referendum

(see here for returns as they break)

The Irish Sunday Business Post reports a new poll on the Irish referendum, conducted on its behalf by Red C. Here are the numbers, compared to previous polls:

In 2008, Ireland will hold a treaty to ratify the European Union Reform Treaty. If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for Ireland to sign up for the reform treaty or not?

Yes / No / Don't know

Jun 8th: 42% / 39% / 19%
May 26th: 42% / 32% / 26%
May 11th: 37% / 30% / 33%
Apr 2008: 37% / 30% / 34%
Feb 2008: 46% / 23% / 31%
Jan 2008: 45% / 25% / 30%

That looks like a big gain for the 'no' vote. However, the Sunday Business Post notes that the numbers look better for the 'yes' campaign among people who are certain that they will vote: 46 to 37 percent. I guess it will depend on the weather?

The numbers of this polling outfit have been consistently better for the 'yes vote' than the numbers of the Irish Times, which showed the 'no' vote ahead last Thursday.

Both are reporting the same trend: the 'no' vote is gaining. However, both polls were conducted up to last Wednesday and may not reflect some developments since, such as the pledge of support by the Irish Farmers' Association.

Next Thursday...