In American foreign-policy thinking the most widespread argument for pushing the EU to accept Turkey into its arms is the supposed transformational power of the decision. By taking up a Muslim, second world country the EU is supposed to show the world that the cultural and economic standards of what we still call the west are open to everyone. This is one of the few really bipartisan foreign-policy ideas, supported by Clinton as well as by both Bush 41 and 43. The view was repeated in recent comments by US undersecretary of State Nicolas Burns:
In the EU, we should be extremely careful about this kind of view, because in a way, it asks us to embrace Turkey precisely because of the aspects that separate us. We will be ill-served by this kind of enlightened idealism when we want to work on the things that unite the EU, like respect for diversity, human rights, international law and a dynamic economic system that rewards all people's efforts. Turkey still has some way to go on all of these."Historians will say it is one of these important decisions the Europeans made ... at the beginning of the 21st century, to open the EU up to this major Muslim secular democracy"
The potential reward of welcoming Turkey is also belied by the more detailed cleavages that exist in the Middle East. Turkey's neigbours are Arabs - who dislike Turkey for having been an occupying country and not being or speaking Arab; Iranians, who are of a different Islamic denomination; Armenians, who are Christian and have some old issues with Turkey, and Georgians who are also Christian. Turkish entry into the EU could well serve to enlarge instead of bridge these cleavages, especially those with the Arab world.
There are other, more important geostrategic reasons for wanting Turkey in the EU. Most notably, Turkey is the only alternative route to Russia for oil and gas from Central Asia. Just yesterday, the EU signed a memorandum of understanding on closer energy ties with Kazakhstan. One of the things discussed was extending the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs from the Caspian sea to the Mediterranean. Pipelines to Iran and Iraq also run through Turkey. If we are unsure about the intentions of Russia, as we have every reason to be, we can't allow ourselves to alienate Turkey.
Although strategic considerations matter, they don't suffice as a reason for wanting Turkey in the EU. The ultimate reason should be that it has a culture and economy that is already strongly integrated into the European Union. Both sides will become richer if the process of integration is carried forward successfully. Turkey is still a large, poor country, but it is richer than the Ukraine and many Balkan states that are considered to be up for membership. The average income of its people is comparable to Bulgaria and Romania, two countries which will enter the EU next January 1st. In addition, it has a healthy economic and demographic development which should put it in a better position when it is up for entry. Which is 2014, at the earliest.Turkish complaints that the EU is 'measuring with two sizes' (Dutch proverb) are somewhat justified, because the European Union has cut Romania and especially Bulgaria an enormous amount of slack by not postponing their entry after they failed part of the requirements. Turkey, instead, is now being held up to the rules that had been set. But this is necessary. The process of integrating Turkey is a much more difficult one. We can get there in the end, and should do as much as we can. But the issue is too politically sensitive among the European population to allow Turkey to enter when it is only halfway ready. At the same time, we need to get a stronger commitment from the national leaders of the EU, who need to signal again that they will allow Turkey in when it meets all of the requirements.
To walk this tightrope, we need to stop thinking about Turkey as a geostrategic or cultural prize, and start thinking about Turkey as a European country.
(Crossposted from the comments at the Washington Post)
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8 comments:
Good thoughts. It may be too late to turn the tide though. Turkish public opinion has by an large divorced itself from the EU idea. No Turkish government will be capable of making concessions on issues of national consequence anytime soon, like on Cyprus. EU politics doesn't seem amenable to easing the confrontation, either. Not a very bright tableau indeed.
Thanks. The easing will have to come from a solution to the Cyprus issue. With the talks temporarily suspended, completely or partially, maybe things will cool off and a solution to the issue can be found within the next two or three years...
Absolutely, the easing will have to come from a solution to the Cyprus problem. That's why I am not very optimistic. I doubt if things will cool off on the Turkish side. The present government may pretend otherwise, but the reactions will reverberate. Brace yourself for developments from Turkey's unilateral actions regarding Cyprus, like practical absorption of the North, to a worsening in the Kurdish situation. The EU anchor must have also helped non-violent Kurdish Turks and their parties to resist armed ways of the PKK. With this anchor in jeopardy, PKK violence may rise again.
There may be some hope if the England-Spain-Italy party manages to keep the "punishment" at a minimum. The other party, lead by Germany and France, appear to seek punishment for the sake of punishment as if to make a point. And Turkish people are getting the point.
Also check this article out.
i think Turkey should start to step up their geographical position. like that oil and gas pipelines. charge them triple. if they can afford cross countries to lay pipes they can afford to pay that. they charge the consumer 100 times anyway for a gallon.
i dont want turkey to join the eu. already corrupted countries block. with no culture, no economical growth. i think turkey has alot to lose than gain.
I think that the newsweek article (which you can also read in full on the newsweek page) is too alarmist. Partially a journalistic ploy to get magazines sold, I'd say. The journalist ends up qualifying the entire article towards the end, in the paragraph starting with 'perhaps things are not as bleak...'.
The entire view given is that of Turkey as a 'prize'. Look at the marvellous geostrategic goals we can accomplish by Turkish accession! If the Turkish people on the street get wind of this, I don't think they'd be very happy that we want to use Turkey as a springboard for transforming Islam.
I agree that the Franco-German proposal needs to be stopped. Frankfully, the axis is no longer as strong. Politicians like Merkel and Sarkozy should realise that the words they speak will have repercussions in the region. At the same time, steps towards annexation of Northern Cyprus would not just antagonise the EU, they would also be in violation of fundamental principles of international law, which forbid the conquest and annexation of territory. Turkey will get a lot of pressure from the US as well to refrain from this.
But let's take a step back. It is interesting to note that Turkey first applied for membership (of the then EEC) in 1959. Since then, the EU and Turkey have grown to be a lot more integrated, economically as well as culturally, and there is no specific reason why this would not continue. Even if the sentiment in Turkey changes a lot following the deadlock, the economic realities will not.
To Anonymous: the pipelines in the picture have not yet been completed (only the thin and dotted lines have, except the dotted line to Iraq). If in the future Turkey would do something silly like charging triple the market price, the countries from which the pipelines are coming will shut them down and send the oil and gas by ship or through pipelines running through Russia (Turkey is only a transit country).
Joining the EU would be beneficial to Turkey as it will receive a fair amount of money to invest in its infrastructure and easier access to the European market (the largest open market in the world). The countries of the EU are among the oldest cultures that exist. Visit any capital of a European country and you'll be amazed!
Nanne, I don't disagree. Especially about the economic realities and the overall integration so far. Hope you're right and both sides will cool off in the coming period. It was good talking to you.
Thanks & likewise.
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