Dutch Elections: Picking Up the Pieces

With Wowereit now in, the negotiations after the Berlin elections took about two months. The 'formation' of the Dutch goverment may well take longer.

The outgoing government took more than four months to form, and the record stands at well over six. The last formation was something of a rollercoaster ride, with the negotiations between the PvdA and the CDA failing spectacularly. We may be in for a few twists and turns before this one comes to a close.

Being confused is the right kind of state.

This doesn't mean that we can't assign probabilities. The most likely outcome, as the consensus goes from The European Tribune on the left to The Moderate Voice on the right, is a center-left coalition between the social democratic PvdA, the socially conservative but economically left ChristenUnie, and the christian democratic CDA.

There are a number of hurdles to be overcome, though. First, the PvdA of Wouter Bos has suffered a rather large blow at the polls, losing 10 9 seats to go to 32 33. They will likely be somewhat modest about getting into the government on the basis of that result. Strategic considerations about the booming socialist SP will play into this. Then again, the PvdA has just been in the opposition for three years and lost a lot to the SP. Since being out of government hasn't exactly been very good for them, being in it should not be seen as a strategic risk.

Another issue is that the negotiating position of the PvdA is rather poor. They'll want to push it up by playing hard to get. But this can backfire. There isn't much personal affinity between the PvdA and the CDA as it is, and even though the differences between Bos and Balkenende have probably been overplayed, another round of sometimes very personal campaigning is unlikely to have done any good.

André Rouvoet's ChristenUnie is going to be somewhat easier to convince. In fact, yesterday, as the results started coming in, Rouvoet was very quick to call for a CDA/PvdA/ChristenUnie coalition. In terms of economic and foreign policy, the ChristenUnie is somewhere in the middle between the PvdA and the CDA, so on that basis it is an ideal coalition partner.

The problem is the social agenda of the ChristenUnie, which is against abortion, euthanasia and gay marriage. The PvdA is unlikely to be willing to give any ground on this, but in fact a compromise might be reached on abortion and euthanasia, by way of less government spending, or somewhat tighter regulations and enforcement, or a large government programme on preventing pregnancy and promoting adoption.

The CDA, which, barring a freak scenario, will once again bring Jan-Peter Balkenende to the Prime Minister's office, actually wanted a continuation of the coalition with the free-market liberal VVD party. However, that is no longer a serious option. Crazy things can happen. But for a coalition with the much-diminished VVD to happen now is a bit too crazy.

It would require a coalition of at least five parties, or one that includes either the PvdA or the socialist SP, which sort of destroys the whole point.

Now there were some takes on the formation after the 2003 elections which stated that Balkenende himself was quite eager to work with the PvdA, but was undermined by the right wing of his party. I don't know if this was correct, but Balkenende should by now have a bigger position of power within his own party. The decision rests with him.

Well, it rests with him and with the Queen. This is the only moment in the Dutch political process where she has any real power, as she has to appoint the first negotiators. What does the Queen want for the Netherlands? Presumably, since she's not a discordian, she'll want a coalition that can form a stable governing majority. But who really knows? Crazy things can happen.